Daily Antarctic Sea Ice Area Anomaly (Today)

Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly

 

In early 2017, the Arctic, Antarctic and Global Sea Ice Area Extent were each at the lowest level in the data set.

Context: the average Antarctic ice area for the date is about 13.049 million sq. km. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite that provides passive microwave brightness temperatures (and derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice products) has been providing spurious data since beginning of April. The data show a steadily rising ice amount over the 1979 to April 2016 period..

(Source: Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois)


The National Snow and Ice Data Center shows a map-based view. After a reaching its maximum extent unusually early and then following a period of relatively unchanging overall extent, Antarctic sea ice extent started to Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly Chartdecline in earnest in mid 2016. Daily sea ice extent levels have been at second lowest in the satellite record since October 2016 and below the two standard deviation range. The longer term trend line shows a 1% rise perdecade in ice extent over all available data (since 1979). Both of these figures are from the Center.

 

Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly

Analysis: Conventional wisdom (and the IPCC) states that the poles will warm first. Clearly there is no change in the Antarctic. What does this tell us? The Antarctic alone cannot be used as an indicator of warming or cooling, because it must be viewed in concert with the Arctic. Also, data only goes back to 1979, when satellite sensors and analytical programs could get a handle on measuring sea ice. Even today it has problems, such as dealing with water on ice, as happens after a warm spell. The sensor sees water, not ice, but this does not mean the underlying ice is gone. If the Antarctic gains or loses ice, but the global balance is about the same, there is no global cooling or warming. The convoluted arguments made by CO2-based modelers to rationalize the failure to predict or reflect what is so visible to both the trained and untrained eye instigates ridicule and has weakened their credibility among both legislators and the public.

 

More importantly, we must wonder what the satellites would have observed happening in the Antarctic when Roald Amundsen sailed through the Arctic in 1903-1905 on the small wooden ship Gjøa when the Northwest Passage was open to sailing vessels, and again in 1940-42 and 1944 (St. Roch), it is possible the 2007 reduction in Arctic ice is not an indicator of warming, since it was balanced by record high Antarctic ice levels. The return of Arctic sea ice in 2008 to more normal levels and Antarctica remaining generally above the average has received little attention. If you put a ruler on this chart, it is clear there is a trend towards more sea ice, irrespective of what is advocated in the newspapers.

 

 

 

 

 




This page updated or reviewed in December 2016